IATA sees recovery in global passenger numbers

10x Industry

Mita Srinivasan
10x Industry
Published:

IATA sees recovery in global passenger numbers

With limited short-haul markets, the Middle East focus on long-haul connectivity through its hubs is expected to result in slower recovery. Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected to reach 81 percent of 2019 levels in 2022, 98 percent in 2024 and 105 percent in 2025.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects overall traveler numbers to reach 4.0 billion in 2024 (counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger), exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels (103 percent of the 2019 total).

Expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets. The overall picture presented in the latest update to IATA’s long-term forecast, however, is unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the Omicron variant.

The February update to the long-term forecast includes the following highlights:

  • In 2021, overall traveler numbers were 47 percent of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83 percent in 2022, 94 percent in 2023, 103 percent in 2024 and 111 percent in 2025.

  • In 2021, international traveler numbers were 27 percent of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69 percent in 2022, 82 percent in 2023, 92 percent in 2024 and 101 percent in 2025.

Global passenger numbers
Global passenger numbers
Supplied by IATA

The outlook for the evolution of domestic traveler numbers is slightly more pessimistic than in November. While the US and Russian domestic markets have recovered, the same is not true for the other major domestic markets of China, Canada, Japan and Australia.

Not all markets or market sectors are recovering at the same pace.

Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are somewhat weaker in the near-term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the population, and the impact of the crisis on developing economies. Passenger numbers to/from/within Africa will recover more gradually than in other regions, reaching 76 percent of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025 (101 percent).

With limited short-haul markets, the Middle East focus on long-haul connectivity through its hubs is expected to result in slower recovery. Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected to reach 81 percent of 2019 levels in 2022, 98 percent in 2024 and 105 percent in 2025.

The forecast does not calculate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In general, air transport is resilient against shocks and this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport, according to the information shared by IATA. It is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict.

Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity, and time-period for sanctions and/or airspace closures. These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine and neighbouring areas. Pre-COVID-19, Russia was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers, including its large domestic market. Ukraine ranked 48.